peterm left a comment that got me thinking about this news.
Following up on:
Syria: Ten Years On
If you got back to this previous posts you may realize why the tripartite agreement is in the making....and has been since at least 2019
2019- Birth Pangs SITREP: Turkey, Qatar and Russia Threaten US? Baghdad BedlamYes, that is the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies- An Israeli friendly think tank
The rise and consolidation of the Turkish-Qatari alliance poses “a growing threat” to the interests of the United States and the Middle East, a US think tank said in a report on Thursday.
Some background on the Qatar/US dynamic and it's break up. With the US working to get Qatar back in the fold
Bring it up to 2021 and we have Russia, Turkey and Qatar creating a potential tripartite platform
 |
| image from article |
It may seem natural for Russian diplomats to try to promote a new platform for Syria alongside Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has, after all, heard comforting words from Riyadh and Abu Dhabi on the necessity of political openness to the regime in Damascus and the need for Syria to return to the Arab League after a ten-year absence. However, what is strange is that the Russians want a platform for Syria with Qatar and Turkey,(it's not that strange- see above)two countries with a political position that contradicts (not entirely) Moscow's.
Lavrov heard strong words in Doha from the Qatari foreign minister and his Turkish counterpart. The former insisted that the reasons for the suspension of Syria's membership of the Arab League still exist, so political openness to the regime depends not only on the launch of a political process, but also on the end of tyranny and violence. This can only be achieved after completing the political process, not just beginning it. Meanwhile, the Turkish minister said that any openness to Damascus will encourage it to continue violence, tyranny and political inflexibility.
Why did Moscow choose Doha and Ankara as partners in such a platform?What does the Kremlin expect from it? The answer to the first question is very simple: Qatar and Turkey are still the main regional obstacles standing in the way of the Assad regime and Russia's political vision, even if Ankara is Moscow's partner in many other matters within Syria. Furthermore, Russia does not want to build a platform for Syria with Saudi Arabia and the UAE due to the similarity of their positions, as such a platform will not have any benefit; the idea of establishing international platforms is that they include parties that have differences.
 |
| image from article |
Exactly what Russia is hoping to achieve from this platform is a complicated matter. It is taking advantage of the fluidity in the position of the new US administration for which the Syrian crisis is not a priority when compared with the Iranian nuclear deal and Tehran's role in Iraq and Yemen. This suggests that the Biden administration has not yet developed, and may not develop, a strategic vision regarding Syria that goes beyond the four conditions agreed upon in Washington: no to withdrawal from east of the Euphrates; no to lifting economic sanctions; no to reconstruction and political openness in Damascus before the political settlement; and no to the return of refugees before a safe environment is created.
Washington is going to continue it's occupation. They will not aid Syria in reconstruction, nor will Saudi Arabia. However, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have long been involved in the stolen Syrian territory- Occupied by the US and their PKK allies (there are previous reports here at PFYT covering this)
Saudi Aramaco Arrives in Deir Ezzor, Syria- American Contracts in Hand
Saudi International Company (Aramco) intends to invest oil fields and wells in Deir Ezzor.
It is worth mentioning that the American administration, through its President Donald Trump, has repeatedly stated in recent days that it will invest the underground wealth of Deir Ezzor, Hasakeh, and Raqqa, in a clear challenge to Assad regime, the Russians, and Iran."
"Mohammad al-Akam, a senior Syrian legislator, said that a tripartite coalition has been formed among Saudi Arabia, the Kurdish forces and Israel under the US supervision which pursues pressures on Damascus after gaining victory over terrorist groups, by separating the Northeastern parts of the country
Back to the alternative tripartite: Russia, Qatar and Turkey
In light of this, and in the face of the static situation within Syria, Russia is working to recycle its positions and open up to new regional capitals which are currently locked out. On this occasion, it means engaging an Arab state that supports the opposition and the Syrian people who aspire to freedom.
Those locked out by the US and friends would be Qatar and Turkey
The humanitarian aspect and potential participation in the reconstruction of Syria is seen as a gateway for Doha's involvement in the country, given the increasing international demands to reduce the economic burdens on the Assad regime in a way that will have a positive effect on the Syrian people. UN envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen was clear about this a few months ago: "The United Nations, and I personally, have directly engaged concerned States so that all humanitarian exemptions to sanctions remain available and are fully utilised to combat the Covid-19 pandemic. I note the positive response of different countries to the United Nations on this aspect." This is in addition to the presence of data in the US to provide exceptions in the sanctions as a means to reduce the repercussions of sanctions on the Syrians.
Turkey and Doha might help with the rebuilding (Turkey is in some areas already) If Doha would participate as well it would alleviate pressure on Damascus to rebuild, but, create pressure in other areas.
However, a Russian concession on humanitarian affairs is not sufficient for Ankara and Doha to abandon the US umbrella and rush to Moscow to include it in the provision of aid and reconstruction.Neither Qatar nor Turkey need Russia to search for a role in the region. Rather, it seems as if the opposite is true, and Russia needs an Arab party in Syria that is able to take action if understandings on specific issues are reached. There is no better choice for this than Qatar given its strategic relations with Turkey,the strong regional player in Syria, and Doha's network of international connections. Russia has experienced the Qatari role in more than one issue, most notably in Afghanistan, one of the most difficult in the world at the moment.
Hence, the Moscow-Doha-Ankara platform cannot be considered complete; it is a starting point for future understandings, and the political understandings are not far behind.No matter how much Moscow tries, without a change in the Qatari-Turkish political position on the one hand, or a change in the Russian position on the other, this platform will not be able to achieve anything serious.